Prediction of water quality in the Danube River under extreme hydrological and temperature conditions

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Title:Prediction of water quality in the Danube River under extreme hydrological and temperature conditions
Creators:
Pekarova, P.; pekarova at uh dot savba dot sk; Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Račianska 75, 831 02 Bratislava 3, Slovakia
Onderka, M.; Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Račianska 75, 831 02 Bratislava 3, Slovakia
Pekár, J.; Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics Comenius University Bratislava, Mlynská dolina, 842 48 Bratislava, Slovakia
Rončák, P.; Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Jeséniova 17, 833 15 Bratislava, Slovakia
Miklánek, P.; Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Račianska 75, 831 02 Bratislava 3, Slovakia
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 57, 1, pp. 3-15
Uncontrolled Keywords:Danube River, Water Quality, SARIMA Model, Simulation,

Abstract

One of the requirements imposed by the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000/60/EC) is to analyze and predict how quality of surface waters will evolve in the future. In assessing the development of a stream’s pollution one must consider all sources of pollution and understand how water quality evolves over time. Flow and water temperature regime of a stream or river are the main factors controlling the extent to which deterioration of a stream’s water quality can propagate under constant input from pollution sources. In addition, there is ever increasing public concern about the state of the aquatic environment. Decision makers and scientists involved in water management call for studies proposing simulation models of water quality under extreme natural hydrologic and climatic scenarios. Also, human impact on water resources remain an issue for discussion, especially when it comes to sustainability of water resources with respect to water quality and ecosystem health. In the present study we investigate the long-term trends in water quality variables of the Danube River at Bratislava, Slovakia (Chl–a, Ca, EC, SO42, Cl-, O2, BOD5, N-tot, PO4-P, NO3-N, NO2-N, etc.), for the period 1991–2005. Several SARIMA models were tested for the long-term prediction of selected pollutant concentrations under various flow and water temperature conditions. In order to create scenarios of selected water quality variables with prediction for 12 months ahead, three types of possible hydrologic and water temperature conditions were defined: i) average conditions – median flows and water temperature; ii) low flows and high water temperature; and iii) high flows and low water temperature. These conditions were derived for each month using daily observations of water temperature and daily discharge readings taken in the Danube at Bratislava over the period 1931–2005 in the form of percentiles (1th-percentile, median, 99th-percentile). Once having derived these extreme-case scenarios, we used selected Box-Jenkins models (with two regressors – discharge and water temperature) to simulate the extreme monthly water quality variables. The impact of natural and man-made changes in a stream’s hydrology on water quality can be readily well simulated by means of autoregressive models.

Official URL: http://versita.metapress.com/content/9qj1437403n1p828/fulltext.pdf

Title:Prediction of water quality in the Danube River under extreme hydrological and temperature conditions
Translated title:Prediction of water quality in the Danube River under extreme hydrological and temperature conditions
Creators:
Pekarova, P.; pekarova at uh dot savba dot sk; Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Račianska 75, 831 02 Bratislava 3, Slovakia
Onderka, M.; Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Račianska 75, 831 02 Bratislava 3, Slovakia
Pekár, J.; Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics Comenius University Bratislava, Mlynská dolina, 842 48 Bratislava, Slovakia
Rončák, P.; Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Jeséniova 17, 833 15 Bratislava, Slovakia
Miklánek, P.; Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Račianska 75, 831 02 Bratislava 3, Slovakia
Uncontrolled Keywords:Danube River, Water Quality, SARIMA Model, Simulation,
Subjects:T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:Mathematics, Physics and Earth Sciences > Institute of Hydrodynamics > Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Volume:57
Number:1
Page Range:pp. 3-15
ISSN:0042-790X
Publisher:Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Hydrodynamics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Related URLs:
URLURL Type
http://avi.lib.cas.cz/node/55Publisher
ID Code:4760
Item Type:Article
Deposited On:15 Dec 2009 11:59
Last Modified:15 Dec 2009 10:59

Citation

Pekarova, P.; Onderka, M.; Pekár, J.; Rončák, P.; Miklánek, P. (2009) Prediction of water quality in the Danube River under extreme hydrological and temperature conditions. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 57 (1). pp. 3-15. ISSN 0042-790X

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