Uncertainty of Hydrological Forecast due to Inputting Precipitation Forecast and simple Probabilistic Approach for the Labe (Elbe) River Catchment

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Title:Uncertainty of Hydrological Forecast due to Inputting Precipitation Forecast and simple Probabilistic Approach for the Labe (Elbe) River Catchment
Creators:
Daňhelka, Jan; Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Na Šabatce 17, 143 06 Prague, Czech Republic and Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague, Czech Republic.
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 53, 2, pp. 91-102
Uncontrolled Keywords:QPF, Uncertainty, Hydrological Forecasting, Probabilistic Forecasting, Labe (Elbe) River

Abstract

Area of the Czech Republic is located in headwater area of central Europe. As a result a flood concentration and travel times are quite short (generally from hours to 2 or 3 days). Therefore QPF must be used to provide sufficient lead-time of the hydrological forecast. In addition, the significant orography influence demands rather detailed spatial resolution of NWP model. ALADIN NWP precipitation forecast is used for hydrological models. ALADIN produces only deterministic QPF. Hence the evaluation of QPF uncertainty from the hydrological point of view is necessary. For different basins, time intervals and QPF intervals the difference of QPF and MAP was made and exceedance curves were derived. Using these curves we can post-process determinant QPF to obtain different QPF variants which input hydrological model. Despite its simplicity this approach provides some additional probabilistic information to main model run.

Official URL: http://147.213.145.2/vc/vc1.asp

Title:Uncertainty of Hydrological Forecast due to Inputting Precipitation Forecast and simple Probabilistic Approach for the Labe (Elbe) River Catchment
Translated title:Nejistota hydrologických předpovědí způsobená vstupující předpovědí srážek a jednoduchý pravděpodobnostní přístup k jejímu vyjádření pro povodí Labe
Creators:
Daňhelka, Jan; Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Na Šabatce 17, 143 06 Prague, Czech Republic and Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague, Czech Republic.
Uncontrolled Keywords:QPF, Uncertainty, Hydrological Forecasting, Probabilistic Forecasting, Labe (Elbe) River
Subjects:T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:Mathematics, Physics and Earth Sciences > Institute of Hydrodynamics > Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Volume:53
Number:2
Page Range:pp. 91-102
ISSN:0042-790X
Publisher:Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Hydrodynamics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Related URLs:
URLURL Type
http://avi.lib.cas.cz/node/55Publisher
ID Code:6014
Item Type:Article
Deposited On:15 Jun 2010 12:23
Last Modified:15 Jun 2010 10:23

Citation

Daňhelka, Jan (2005) Uncertainty of Hydrological Forecast due to Inputting Precipitation Forecast and simple Probabilistic Approach for the Labe (Elbe) River Catchment. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 53 (2). pp. 91-102. ISSN 0042-790X

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