Identifikácia dlhodobých trendov a fluktuácií hydrologických radov (Čásť II. Výsledky)

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Title:Identifikácia dlhodobých trendov a fluktuácií hydrologických radov (Čásť II. Výsledky)
Creators:
Pekárová, Pavla; pekarova at uh dot savba dot sk; Ústav hydrológie SAV, Račianska 75, 831 02 Bratislava, Slovenská republika
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 51, 2, pp. 97-108
Uncontrolled Keywords:Time Series Analysis, Hodrick-Prescott Filter, Long-Term Trends, Cyclicity, Combined Periodogram

Abstract

In the second part of the paper long-term trends and cyclicity in hydrological time series are identified using both the Hodrick-Presoctt (HP) filter and the combined periodogram. The HP filter seems to be a good tool for analyzing annual time series. It clearly identifies the decrease in the Slovak rainfall time series 1900–1990 and the increase in those of 1990–2000. Using the combined periodogram method oscillation cycles in the discharge time series of main Slovak rivers were identified. These cycles are likely to be characteristic for all Slovak rivers in general. This means the discharge time series are not stationary, they involve a cyclical component. To calculate hydrological characteristics it is necessary to have such a sufficiently long time series that involves both complete wet and dry periods. Because of existence of an about 29 year cycle, a period consisting of 30 years is very suitable. From the long-term point of view, both Danube and Morava Rivers possess steady trends while in the Bodrog and Vah rivers a decrease in discharge occurred during the XX Century. This decrease was mainly due to lower annual rainfalls in Slovakia. When determine long-term discharges, an oscillation of wet and dry periods should be taken into account. The trends should be determined for closed cycles, i.e., either from minimum to minimum or from maximum to maximum. From the long-term trends analysis it follows that the linear trend is not adequate to extrapolate the hydrological time series to the future.

Official URL: http://147.213.145.2/vc/vc1.asp

Title:Identifikácia dlhodobých trendov a fluktuácií hydrologických radov (Čásť II. Výsledky)
Translated title:Identification of long-term trends and fluctuations of hydrological time series (Part II, Results
Creators:
Pekárová, Pavla; pekarova at uh dot savba dot sk; Ústav hydrológie SAV, Račianska 75, 831 02 Bratislava, Slovenská republika
Uncontrolled Keywords:Time Series Analysis, Hodrick-Prescott Filter, Long-Term Trends, Cyclicity, Combined Periodogram
Subjects:T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:Mathematics, Physics and Earth Sciences > Institute of Hydrodynamics > Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Volume:51
Number:2
Page Range:pp. 97-108
ISSN:0042-790X
Publisher:Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Hydrodynamics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Related URLs:
URLURL Type
http://avi.lib.cas.cz/node/55Publisher
ID Code:6110
Item Type:Article
Deposited On:24 Jun 2010 13:41
Last Modified:24 Jun 2010 11:41

Citation

Pekárová, Pavla (2003) Identifikácia dlhodobých trendov a fluktuácií hydrologických radov (Čásť II. Výsledky). Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 51 (2). pp. 97-108. ISSN 0042-790X

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