Is the Political Economy Stable or Chaotic?

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Title:Is the Political Economy Stable or Chaotic?
Creators:
Schofield, Norman
Journal or Publication Title:
AUCO Czech Economic Review, 5, 1, pp. 76-94
Uncontrolled Keywords:Economic uncertainty, climate change, political disorder

Abstract

Recent events in the global economy have caused many writers to argue that the market is driven by animal spirits, by irrational exuberance or speculation. At the same time, the economic downturn has apparently caused many voters in the United States, and other countries, to change their opinion about the the proper role of government. Unfortunately, there does not exist a general equilibrium model of the political economy, combining a formal model of the existence, and convergence to a price equilibrium, as well as an equilibrium model of political choice. One impediment to such a theory is the so-called chaos theorem which suggests that existence of a political equilibrium is non-generic. This paper surveys results in the theory of dynamical systems, emphasizing the role of structural stability and chaos. We consider models of celestial mechanics where the notion of chaos first developed, and then examine applications in models of climate change and economics. There is discussion of the past influences of climate on human society, and particularly how agriculture developed during the “holocene,” the past ten thousand years of benign climate. The recent period of globalization is likened to the holocene, and the question is raised whether future climate change may bring economic and political chaos.

Official URL: http://www.ceeol.com/aspx/issuedetails.aspx?issueid=57B5F853-06A7-48F2-B60F-167EA4E75E73&articleid=A5A676FC-B604-47C8-82E7-438DBF036420

Title:Is the Political Economy Stable or Chaotic?
Creators:
Schofield, Norman
Uncontrolled Keywords:Economic uncertainty, climate change, political disorder
Subjects:H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Divisions:Section of external journals > AUCO Czech Economic Review
Journal or Publication Title:AUCO Czech Economic Review
Volume:5
Number:1
Page Range:pp. 76-94
ISSN:1802-4696
Publisher:Charles University
Related URLs:
URLURL Type
http://auco.cuni.czPublisher
http://avi.lib.cas.cz/node/183Publisher
ID Code:6519
Item Type:Article
Deposited On:05 Apr 2011 17:05
Last Modified:05 Apr 2011 15:05

Citation

Schofield, Norman (2011) Is the Political Economy Stable or Chaotic? AUCO Czech Economic Review, 5 (1). pp. 76-94. ISSN 1802-4696

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