Joint modelling of flood peaks and volumes: A copula application for the Danube River

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Title:Joint modelling of flood peaks and volumes: A copula application for the Danube River
Creators:
Papaioannou, George ; gpapaioa at uth dot gr; Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, Pedion Areos, 38334 Volos, Greece.
Kohnová, Silvia ; Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia.
Bacigál, Tomáš ; Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Mathematics and Constructive Geometry,Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia.
Szolgay, Ján ; Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia.
Hlavčová, Kamila; Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia.
Loukas, Athanasios ; Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, Pedion Areos, 38334 Volos, Greece.
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 64, 4, pp. 382-392
Uncontrolled Keywords:bivariate frequency analysis, copulas, dependence of flood peaks and volumes, Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient, Danube River

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis is usually performed as a univariate analysis of flood peaks using a suitable theoretical probability distribution of the annual maximum flood peaks or peak over threshold values. However, other flood attributes, such as flood volume and duration, are necessary for the design of hydrotechnical projects, too. In this study, the suitability of various copula families for a bivariate analysis of peak discharges and flood volumes has been tested. Streamflow data from selected gauging stations along the whole Danube River have been used. Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient (tau) quantifies the dependence between flood peak discharge and flood volume settings. The methodology is applied to two different data samples: 1) annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks combined with annual maximum flow volumes of fixed durations at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 60 days, respectively (which can be regarded as a regime analysis of the dependence between the extremes of both variables in a given year), and 2) annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks with corresponding flood volumes (which is a typical choice for engineering studies). The bivariate modelling of the extracted peak discharge - flood volume couples is achieved with the use of the Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Clayton, Frank, Joe, Gumbel, Hüsler-Reiss, Galambos, Tawn, Normal, Plackett and FGM copula families. Scatterplots of the observed and simulated peak discharge - flood volume pairs and goodness-of-fit tests have been used to assess the overall applicability of the copulas as well as observing any changes in suitable models along the Danube River. The results indicate that for the second data sampling method, almost all of the considered Archimedean class copula families perform better than the other copula families selected for this study, and that for the first method, only the upper-tail-flat copulas excel (except for the AMH copula due to its inability to model stronger relationships).

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Title:Joint modelling of flood peaks and volumes: A copula application for the Danube River
Translated title:Joint modelling of flood peaks and volumes: A copula application for the Danube River
Creators:
Papaioannou, George ; gpapaioa at uth dot gr; Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, Pedion Areos, 38334 Volos, Greece.
Kohnová, Silvia ; Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia.
Bacigál, Tomáš ; Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Mathematics and Constructive Geometry,Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia.
Szolgay, Ján ; Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia.
Hlavčová, Kamila; Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia.
Loukas, Athanasios ; Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, Pedion Areos, 38334 Volos, Greece.
Uncontrolled Keywords:bivariate frequency analysis, copulas, dependence of flood peaks and volumes, Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient, Danube River
Subjects:T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:Mathematics, Physics and Earth Sciences > Institute of Hydrodynamics > Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Volume:64
Number:4
Page Range:pp. 382-392
ISSN:0042-790X
Publisher:Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Hydrodynamics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Related URLs:
URLURL Type
http://avi.lib.cas.cz/node/55Publisher
ID Code:8680
Item Type:Article
Deposited On:10 Nov 2016 17:47
Last Modified:10 Nov 2016 16:47

Citation

Papaioannou, George; Kohnová, Silvia; Bacigál, Tomáš; Szolgay, Ján; Hlavčová, Kamila; Loukas, Athanasios (2016) Joint modelling of flood peaks and volumes: A copula application for the Danube River. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 64 (4). pp. 382-392. ISSN 0042-790X

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