Real time flood forecasting in the Upper Danube basin

[img]
Preview
PDF
Language: English
2750Kb
Title:Real time flood forecasting in the Upper Danube basin
Creators:
Nester, Thomas; nester at hydro dot tuwien dot ac dot at; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040, Vienna, Austria
Komma, Jürgen ; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040, Vienna, Austria.
Blöschl, Günter ; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040, Vienna, Austria.
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 64, 4, pp. 404-414
Uncontrolled Keywords:hydrological model, real time forecasting, dominant processes, Data assimilation

Abstract

This paper reports on experience with developing the flood forecasting model for the Upper Danube basin and its operational use since 2006. The model system consists of hydrological and hydrodynamic components, and involves precipitation forecasts. The model parameters were estimated based on the dominant processes concept. Runoff data are assimilated in real time to update modelled soil moisture. An analysis of the model performance indicates 88% of the snow cover in the basin to be modelled correctly on more than 80% of the days. Runoff forecasting errors decrease with catchment area and increase with forecast lead time. The forecast ensemble spread is shown to be a meaningful indicator of the forecast uncertainty. During the 2013 flood, there was a tendency for the precipitation forecasts to underestimate event precipitation and for the runoff model to overestimate runoff generation which resulted in, overall, rather accurate runoff forecasts. It is suggested that the human forecaster plays an essential role in interpreting the model results and, if needed, adjusting them before issuing the forecasts to the general public.

Official URL: http://147.213.145.2/vc/vc1.asp

Title:Real time flood forecasting in the Upper Danube basin
Translated title: Real time flood forecasting in the Upper Danube basin
Creators:
Nester, Thomas; nester at hydro dot tuwien dot ac dot at; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040, Vienna, Austria
Komma, Jürgen ; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040, Vienna, Austria.
Blöschl, Günter ; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040, Vienna, Austria.
Uncontrolled Keywords:hydrological model, real time forecasting, dominant processes, Data assimilation
Subjects:T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:Mathematics, Physics and Earth Sciences > Institute of Hydrodynamics > Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Volume:64
Number:4
Page Range:pp. 404-414
ISSN:0042-790X
Publisher:Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Hydrodynamics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Related URLs:
URLURL Type
http://avi.lib.cas.cz/node/55Publisher
ID Code:8682
Item Type:Article
Deposited On:10 Nov 2016 17:47
Last Modified:10 Nov 2016 16:47

Citation

Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter (2016) Real time flood forecasting in the Upper Danube basin. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 64 (4). pp. 404-414. ISSN 0042-790X

Repository Staff Only: item control page