The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation

[img]
Preview
PDF
Language: English
1294Kb
Title:The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation
Creators:
Šraj, Mojca ; mojca dot sraj at fgg dot uni-lj dot si ; University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, Jamova 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Viglione , Alberto ; viglione at hydro dot tuwien dot ac dot at; Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040
Parajka, Juraj; parajka at hydro dot tuwien dot ac dot at; Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040
Blöschl, Günter; bloeschl at hydro dot tuwien dot ac dot at ; Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 64, 4, pp. 426-437
Uncontrolled Keywords:nonstationarity, trends, flood frequency analysis, return period, design discharge, climate variability

Abstract

Substantial evidence shows that the frequency of hydrological extremes has been changing and is likely to continue to change in the near future. Non-stationary models for flood frequency analyses are one method of accounting for these changes in estimating design values. The objective of the present study is to compare four models in terms of goodness of fit, their uncertainties, the parameter estimation methods and the implications for estimating flood quantiles. Stationary and non-stationary models using the GEV distribution were considered, with parameters dependent on time and on annual precipitation. Furthermore, in order to study the influence of the parameter estimation approach on the results, the maximum likelihood (MLE) and Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) methods were compared. The methods were tested for two gauging stations in Slovenia that exhibit significantly increasing trends in annual maximum (AM) discharge series. The comparison of the models suggests that the stationary model tends to underestimate flood quantiles relative to the non-stationary models in recent years. The model with annual precipitation as a covariate exhibits the best goodness-of-fit performance. For a 10% increase in annual precipitation, the 10-year flood increases by 8%. Use of the model for design purposes requires scenarios of future annual precipitation. It is argued that these may be obtained more reliably than scenarios of extreme event precipitation which makes the proposed model more practically useful than alternative models.

Official URL: http://147.213.145.2/vc/vc1.asp

Title:The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation
Translated title: The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation
Creators:
Šraj, Mojca ; mojca dot sraj at fgg dot uni-lj dot si ; University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, Jamova 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Viglione , Alberto ; viglione at hydro dot tuwien dot ac dot at; Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040
Parajka, Juraj; parajka at hydro dot tuwien dot ac dot at; Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040
Blöschl, Günter; bloeschl at hydro dot tuwien dot ac dot at ; Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Karlsplatz 13/222, A-1040
Uncontrolled Keywords:nonstationarity, trends, flood frequency analysis, return period, design discharge, climate variability
Subjects:T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:Mathematics, Physics and Earth Sciences > Institute of Hydrodynamics > Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics
Volume:64
Number:4
Page Range:pp. 426-437
ISSN:0042-790X
Publisher:Institute of Hydrology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Hydrodynamics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Related URLs:
URLURL Type
http://avi.lib.cas.cz/node/55Publisher
ID Code:8684
Item Type:Article
Deposited On:10 Nov 2016 17:47
Last Modified:10 Nov 2016 16:47

Citation

Šraj, Mojca; Viglione , Alberto; Parajka, Juraj; Blöschl, Günter (2016) The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 64 (4). pp. 426-437. ISSN 0042-790X

Repository Staff Only: item control page